Flop odds
Once you hold your two cards, 50 remain and the flop is 3 of them: 19,600 possible flops. Here is what they do for each kind of hand, counted flop by flop.
| On the flop | Chance | Odds | Odds against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket pair flops a set or better | 11.76% | 1 in 8.5 | 7.5 to 1 |
| Unpaired hand pairs a hole card or better | 32.43% | 1 in 3.1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| Unpaired hand flops two pair with both cards | 2.02% | 1 in 49.5 | 48.5 to 1 |
| Suited hand flops a flush draw | 10.94% | 1 in 9.1 | 8.1 to 1 |
| Suited hand flops a flush | 0.84% | 1 in 119 | 118 to 1 |
Pocket pairs: a set about one flop in eight
A pocket pair flops a set or better 11.8% of the time, 1 in 8.5 flops. About seven flops in eight leave you with the same pair, often facing higher cards on the board. By the river the chance of a set or better grows to 19.2%. What that means for calling raises with small pairs is on the implied odds page.
Unpaired hands: two flops in three miss
With two different cards such as ace-king, the flop pairs at least one of them only 32.4% of the time. The rest of the time you have, at best, a draw or just high cards. Two pair using both hole cards comes 2.02% of the time.
Suited hands: draws, rarely flushes
Two suited cards flop a flush 0.84% of the time, 1 in 119 flops, and a flush draw 10.9% of the time. A flush draw then completes by the river 35.0% of the time if you see both cards.
How we counted
For each kind of hand, a program dealt all 19,600 flops and checked the result; closed-form formulas gave the same numbers exactly. See the methodology, and the odds chart for everything on one page.