Implied odds
Pot odds count only the chips in the pot now. Implied odds also count the chips you expect to win later, on the streets after you hit. They are how a call that looks too expensive can still make money, and how players talk themselves into calls that do not.
The break-even amount
If your chance of hitting is p, the call costs C and the pot you face is P, the call breaks even when you win at least this much more on later streets each time you hit:
Extra needed = (1 − p) × C ÷ p − P
It assumes you win the whole pot when you hit and lose your call when you miss, and that the extra comes only when you hit.
Common draws on the turn
Pot 100, your opponent bets 50, you have one card to come. Pot odds ask for 25%; none of these draws reaches that with one card, so each needs something extra:
| Draw on the turn | Outs | Chance on the river | Equity needed | Extra you must win when you hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw | 9 | 19.6% | 25.0% | 56 |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 17.4% | 25.0% | 88 |
| Two overcards | 6 | 13.0% | 25.0% | 183 |
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 8.7% | 25.0% | 375 |
A flush draw needs only a modest river bet to be paid off. A gutshot needs 375 more, nearly twice the pot after your call, which rarely happens.
Set mining
Calling a raise with a small pocket pair hoping to flop a set is called set mining. You flop a set or better 11.8% of the time: 7.5 to 1 against. So, counting only the flop, you need to win on average at least that many times the price of your call each time you hit, just to break even. In practice you need more: a set sometimes loses, and an opponent without a strong hand will not pay much.
Reverse implied odds
The same logic cuts the other way. When your draw completes but may still be second best, such as a small flush against a bigger one, you can lose extra chips after you hit. Those losses reduce what a draw is worth.
A reality check
Implied odds depend on guesses about what other players will do, so they are the easiest number to be optimistic about. The chance of hitting is exact; the extra you will be paid is not. Work the break-even amount out first with the calculator, then ask honestly whether you will get it.