ICM calculator: tournament equity, deals and the price of the bubble
In a tournament, chips are not money. With half the chips at a final three paying 50/30/20, the chip leader owns 38.4% of the prize pool, not 50%. The Independent Chip Model (ICM) turns any stacks and payouts into each player's share, and it is the standard way to price a deal.
Chip stacks
Prizes still to be paid (1st, 2nd…)
How ICM works
The model says each player wins the tournament with a chance equal to their share of the chips. Second place goes the same way among the players left, and so on down the prizes. Add up every finishing order and each stack gets an expected prize: its equity. It ignores skill, position and blinds, so it is a baseline, not a forecast.
A final three
| Player | Chips | Share of the chips | ICM share of the pool | Chip-chop share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 5,000 | 50.0% | 38.4% | 40.0% |
| Player 2 | 3,000 | 30.0% | 32.8% | 32.0% |
| Player 3 | 2,000 | 20.0% | 28.9% | 28.0% |
The chip leader has half the chips but 38.4% of the pool; the short stack, with a fifth of the chips, owns 28.9%. Prizes are flatter than chips: the short stack is already guaranteed third place money, and the leader cannot win more than first.
The bubble: why an all-in costs more than a coin flip
With four equal stacks and three prizes, calling an all-in against another stack your size needs 65.2% equity to break even in prize money, not 50%. Winning lifts your share of the pool from 25.0% to 38.3%; losing takes it to nothing. The chips you win are worth less than the chips you risk.
At the final table bubble, ten players with nine paid, the same call needs 66.4%. Three-handed with everyone paid it needs 57.1%.
| Player | Chips | Share of the chips | ICM share of the pool | Chip-chop share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 4,000 | 40.0% | 33.6% | 40.0% |
| Player 2 | 3,000 | 30.0% | 29.5% | 30.0% |
| Player 3 | 2,000 | 20.0% | 23.6% | 20.0% |
| Player 4 | 1,000 | 10.0% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
Deals: ICM or chip chop
A chip chop gives each player the smallest prize still to be paid plus a share of the rest in proportion to their chips. It favours big stacks: at the final three above, the leader would take 40.0% by chip chop against 38.4% by ICM. An ICM deal pays each player their equity.
| Player | Chips | Share of the chips | ICM share of the pool | Chip-chop share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 40 | 24.2% | 16.8% | 20.7% |
| Player 2 | 30 | 18.2% | 14.8% | 16.3% |
| Player 3 | 25 | 15.2% | 13.6% | 14.1% |
| Player 4 | 20 | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.8% |
| Player 5 | 15 | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% |
| Player 6 | 12 | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% |
| Player 7 | 10 | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% |
| Player 8 | 8 | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% |
| Player 9 | 5 | 3.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% |
Questions
What does ICM stand for in poker?
The Independent Chip Model: a way to turn tournament chip stacks into shares of the prize money, assuming each player's chance of winning equals their share of the chips.
How much equity do I need to call an all-in on the bubble?
With four equal stacks and three paid, 65.2% against a stack your size. The exact figure depends on all the stacks and prizes: set them in the calculator.
Is an ICM deal fair?
It is fair under the model's assumption that chips alone decide who wins. A much stronger player may prefer to play on; a chip chop pays the chip leader more than ICM does.
Tournament poker is a game of skill and chance with real money at stake. If it stops being fun, free help is available. See the methodology for how every figure is computed.
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